Striving for safety: communicating and deciding in sociotechnical systems

How do communications and decisions impact the safety of sociotechnical systems? This paper frames this question in the context of a dynamic system of nested sub-systems. Communications are related to the construct of observability (i.e. how components integrate information to assess the state with respect to local and global constraints). Decisions are related to the construct of controllability (i.e. how component sub-systems act to meet local and global safety goals). The safety dynamics of sociotechnical systems are evaluated as a function of the coupling between observability and controllability across multiple closed-loop components. Two very different domains (nuclear power and the limited service food industry) provide examples to illustrate how this framework might be applied. While the dynamical systems framework does not offer simple prescriptions for achieving safety, it does provide guides for exploring specific systems to consider the potential fit between organisational structures and work demands, and for generalising across different systems regarding how safety can be managed

Assessing depleted uranium (DU) contamination of soil, plants and earthworms at UK weapons testing sites

Depleted uranium (DU) weapons testing programmes have been conducted at two locations within the UK. An investigation was therefore carried out to assess the extent of any environmental contamination arising from these test programmes using both alpha spectrometry and mass spectrometry techniques. Uranium isotopic signatures indicative of DU contamination were observed in soil, plant and earthworm samples collected in the immediate vicinity of test firing points and targets, but contamination was found to be localised to these areas. The paper demonstrates the superiority of the 235U:238U ratio over the 234U:238U ratio for identifying and quantifying DU contamination in environmental samples and also describes the respective circumstances under which alpha spectrometry or mass spectrometry may be the more appropriate analytical tool

Review of the quarter's economic trends [April 1980]

This brief paper surveys recent world and UK economic data and reveals that there are some signs to suggest that the world economy will withstand the 1979 oil price shock better than it did in 1973/74. The main difference is that the 1979 price rise was not super-imposed on as severe an inflation as that which occurred on the previous occasion. The present rate of increase in the world prices should not reach the levels of the last cycle when the twelve month increase in manufacturing prices peaked at 23%. Advance warning by US economists that 1979 was going to be a year of difficulty did not go unnoticed by businessmen in that country who took steps in 1978 to avoid a repetition of the inventory boom and bust cycle which had proved so costly in the recession of 1973/74. Also, consumer expectations are adjusting towards a continuing rise in the price of oil. In the UK real GDP is expected to fall by 2½% from mid-year 1980. Thereafter, it is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% for the next four years

Calculating singlet excited states: comparison with fast time-resolved infrared spectroscopy of coumarins

In contrast to the ground state, the calculation of the infrared (IR) spectroscopy of molecular singlet excited states represents a substantial challenge. Here we use the structural IR fingerprint of the singlet excited states of a range of coumarin dyes to assess the accuracy of density functional theory based methods for the calculation of excited state IR spectroscopy. It is shown that excited state Kohn-Sham density functional theory provides a high level of accuracy and represents an alternative approach to time-dependent density functional theory for simulating the IR spectroscopy of the singlet excited states

Epidemiology of pleural empyema in English hospitals and the impact of influenza

Pleural empyema represents a significant healthcare burden due to extended hospital admissions and potential requirement for surgical intervention. This study aimed to assess changes in incidence and management of pleural empyema in England over the past 10 years and the potential impact of influenza on rates. Hospital Episode Statistics data were used to identify patients admitted to English hospitals with pleural empyema between 2008 and 2018. Linear regression was used to analyse the relationship between empyema rates and influenza incidence recorded by Public Health England. The relationship between influenza and empyema was further explored using serological data from a prospective cohort study of patients presenting with pleural empyema. Between April 2008 and March 2018 there were 55 530 patients admitted with pleural empyema. There was male predominance (67% versus 33%), which increased with age. Cases have increased significantly from 4447 in 2008 to 7268 in 2017. Peaks of incidence correlated moderately with rates of laboratoryconfirmed influenza in children and young adults (r=0.30). For nine of the 10 years studied, the highest annual point incidence of influenza coincided with the highest admission rate for empyema (with a 2-week lag). In a cohort study of patients presenting to a single UK hospital with pleural empyema/ infection, 24% (17 out of 72) had serological evidence of recent influenza infection, compared to 7% in seasonally matched controls with simple parapneumonic or cardiogenic effusions (p<0.001). Rates of empyema admissions in England have increased steadily with a seasonal variation that is temporally related to influenza incidence. Patient-level serological data from a prospective study support the hypothesis that influenza may play a pathogenic role in empyema development

Detection of weak gravitational lensing distortions of distant galaxies by cosmic dark matter at large scales

Most of the matter in the universe is not luminous and can be observed directly only through its gravitational effect. An emerging technique called weak gravitational lensing uses background galaxies to reveal the foreground dark matter distribution on large scales. Light from very distant galaxies travels to us through many intervening overdensities which gravitationally distort their apparent shapes. The observed ellipticity pattern of these distant galaxies thus encodes information about the large-scale structure of the universe, but attempts to measure this effect have been inconclusive due to systematic errors. We report the first detection of this ``cosmic shear'' using 145,000 background galaxies to reveal the dark matter distribution on angular scales up to half a degree in three separate lines of sight. The observed angular dependence of this effect is consistent with that predicted by two leading cosmological models, providing new and independent support for these models.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures: To appear in Nature. (This replacement fixes tex errors and typos.

Intraspecfic variation in cold-temperature metabolic phenotypes of Arabidopsis lyrata ssp petraea

Atmospheric temperature is a key factor in determining the distribution of a plant species. Alongside this, plant populations growing at the margin of their range may exhibit traits that indicate genetic differentiation and adaptation to their local abiotic environment. We investigated whether geographically separated marginal populations of Arabidopsis lyrata ssp. petraea have distinct metabolic phenotypes associated with exposure to cold temperatures. Seeds of A. petraea were obtained from populations along a latitudinal gradient, namely Wales, Sweden and Iceland and grown in a controlled cabinet environment. Mannose, glucose, fructose, sucrose and raffinose concentrations were different between cold treatments and populations, especially in the Welsh population, but polyhydric alcohol concentrations were not. The free amino acid compositions were population specific, with fold differences in most amino acids, especially in the Icelandic populations, with gross changes in amino acids, particularly those associated with glutamine metabolism. Metabolic fingerprints and profiles were obtained. Principal component analysis (PCA) of metabolite fingerprints revealed metabolic characteristic phenotypes for each population and temperature. It is suggested that amino acids and carbohydrates were responsible for discriminating populations within the PCA. Metabolite fingerprinting and profiling has proved to be sufficiently sensitive to identify metabolic differences between plant populations at different atmospheric temperatures. These findings show that there is significant natural variation in cold metabolism among populations of A. l. petraea which may signify plant adaptation to local climates

Molecular differentiated initiator reactivity in the synthesis of poly(caprolactone)-based hydrophobic homopolymer and amphiphilic core corona star polymers

Macromolecules that possess three-dimensional, branched molecular structures are of great interest because they exhibit significantly differentiated application performance compared to conventional linear (straight chain) polymers. This paper reports the synthesis of 3- and 4-arm star branched polymers via ring opening polymerisation (ROP) utilising multi-functional hydroxyl initiators and Sn(Oct)2 as precatalyst. The structures produced include mono-functional hydrophobic and multi-functional amphiphilic core corona stars. The characteristics of the synthetic process were shown to be principally dependent upon the physical/dielectric properties of the initiators used. ROP’s using initiators that were more available to become directly involved with the Sn(Oct)2 in the “in-situ” formation of the true catalytic species were observed to require shorter reaction times. Use of microwave heating (MWH) in homopolymer star synthesis reduced reaction times compared to conventional heating (CH) equivalents, this was attributed to an increased rate of “in-situ” catalyst formation. However, in amphiphilic core corona star formation, the MWH polymerisations exhibited slower propagation rates than CH equivalents. This was attributed to macro-structuring within the reaction medium, which reduced the potential for reaction. It was concluded that CH experiments were less affected by this macro-structuring because it was disrupted by the thermal currents/gradients caused by the conductive/convective heating mechanisms. These gradients are much reduced/absent with MWH because it selectively heats specific species simultaneously throughout the entire volume of the reaction medium. These partitioning problems were overcome by introducing additional quantities of the species that had been determined to selectively heat

Temporal dynamics of genetic clines of invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) in eastern North America

Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada. Two genetically distinct lineages of European green crabs (Carcinus maenas) were independently introduced to eastern North America, the first in the early 19th century and the second in the late 20th century. These lineages first came into secondary contact in southeastern Nova Scotia, Canada (NS), where they hybridized, producing latitudinal genetic clines. Previous studies have documented a persistent southward shift in the clines of different marker types, consistent with existing dispersal and recruitment pathways. We evaluated current clinal structure by quantifying the distribution of lineages and fine-scale hybridization patterns across the eastern North American range (25 locations, ~39 to 49°N) using informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; n = 96). In addition, temporal changes in the genetic clines were evaluated using mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite loci (n = 9–11) over a 15-year period (2000–2015). Clinal structure was consistent with prior work demonstrating the existence of both northern and southern lineages with a hybrid zone occurring between southern New Brunswick (NB) and southern NS. Extensive later generation hybrids were detected in this region and in southeastern Newfoundland. Temporal genetic analysis confirmed the southward progression of clines over time; however, the rate of this progression was slower than predicted by forecasting models, and current clines for all marker types deviated significantly from these predictions. Our results suggest that neutral and selective processes contribute to cline dynamics, and ultimately, highlight how selection, hybridization, and dispersal can collectively influence invasion success

Portland\u27s Changing Landscape

Occasional Papers in Geography Publication No. 4 What is the nature and character of Portland? What are the conditions, changes and developments that have made it what it is? How does Portland compare with other places? What makes it unique? These are some of the question pursued in this volume. This book contains thirteen chapters discussing various facets of Portland\u27s environmental, economy, and character. It is an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of dynamics and change in the landscape. An overview is provided of Portland as a city and place to live, as well as its functional significance on a national and international basis. Two threads are woven through the tapestry of these essays. One is that Portland is a big city but with many attributes of a small town. The other is the closeness and accessibility of city and nature. The challenge is how to nurture and maintain both - to have our cake and eat it too. The evidence is clear that most American cities have not been able to achieve this. Only the future can tell how Portland will fare. The authors are all professional geographers or work in closely related fields. All have been involved with the Portland scene for a number of years and are uniquely qualified to write about these topics. While each approaches problems from his or her own perspective, the net result is a summing up, a taking stock of where we have been and where we are going. When considered as a whole the book should provide a better view than we have had of the nature and character of this special place.https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/geog_occasionalpaper/1000/thumbnail.jp